How Back and Lay Work for Esports on a Betting Exchange
A series is not one bet but several prices. Here is how each reads on a betting exchange, with the arithmetic.
On a betting exchange, backers and layers face each other: you back a team at a price someone else offered, or you lay it, which bets that it does not win. An esports series can carry several prices at once: the match, one map, a map handicap, a total of maps. Orbit Exchange lists Esports among the 27 entries of its menu. Below: back and lay on a best-of-three, and why a series price is not a map price.
One series, four prices
Search for esports betting and bookmakers fill the page. An exchange handles the same series another way: you take a price someone offered, or you offer your own.
A map is one leg of the series, played to a winner of its own; a best-of-three goes to the first team with two maps. The exchange guide has back and lay in general; this page applies them to a series.
| Market | What it settles | Back means | Lay means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | The series: Team A takes two maps first | Team A wins the series | Team A does not win it |
| Map winner | One map | Team A wins that map | Team A does not win it |
| Map handicap -1.5 | Whether Team A wins by two maps: only a 2-0 does | Team A wins 2-0 | Team A loses, or wins 2-1 |
| Total maps 2.5 | Whether a third map is needed | Over 2.5: a third map is played | Over 2.5: the series ends 2-0, for either team |
These are four shapes a best-of series can take. A handicap in maps counts maps, not goals, so it is a different animal from the line a football bettor reads in the goals-based handicap guide.
From a map to a series
Suppose Team A wins each map with a probability of 0.60. That is false in any real series, where maps differ; it keeps the sums clean. Side note: some titles say “game” where others say “map”. Anyway. On that assumption, a best-of-three ends like this.
Hypothetical: every map independent, the same chance each time. Team A’s series wins are the first two bars.
Show the data table
| Series result | Chance |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 36.0% |
| 2-1 | 28.8% |
| 1-2 | 19.2% |
| 0-2 | 16.0% |
The first two bars add up to 64.8%: that is Team A’s chance of taking the series. A third map is played in 48.0% of series.
Turn each chance into a fair price, which is 1 divided by the probability, before margin and before commission. One map: 1.667. The series: 1.543. Over 2.5 maps: 2.083. Handicap -1.5: 2.778. Same team, same 0.60, four prices.
The price moves as the series is played. Once Team A has won the first map it needs only one of the next two: the series stands at 84.0% for it, a fair price of 1.190.
I would work out the series price from the map price before backing anything: winning twice stretches a 0.60 map into a 0.648 series, so the two prices are never the same bet. This is arithmetic on an assumed win rate. It does not predict any match.
Back and lay at 1.58
Say the series price is 1.58 on the exchange (a price picked to show the sums). Backing £75 wins £43.50 if Team A takes the series. Laying £75 at 1.58 risks £43.50 and wins £75 if it does not. Commission comes off a net profit, so these figures are before it (the commission page has the sum).
An exchange, or a screen that gathers markets
On an exchange
Orbit’s interface text reads “On Orbit Exchange, you can back or lay any selection or create your own odds.”
- A price you take is one another user offered; a price you name waits until someone accepts it.
Best for: a bettor who wants to name the price or take the other side.
Not ideal if: the market is thin, because the stake that fits is what others offer at the price (what a thin market takes).
On a screen that gathers markets
MadMarket writes of its Edge product: “The platform gathers eSports betting markets from a range of bookmakers and exchanges.”
- It names “three popular betting options: Moneyline, Asian Handicap, and Over/Under”.
Best for: one screen that compares esports markets.
Not ideal if: you already know which venue you will use and have no comparing to do.
Stake caps are a separate question, taken up in the page on who caps a stake and the page on Orbit’s limits.
What the brokers’ own lists name
The menu entry is Orbit’s, and the sports and competitions page has all 27. The three lists below are the brokers’ own, and they describe the brokers’ own tools.
AsianConnect lists, under eSports, markets such as “Dota 2 League of Legends CS2 Valorant Mobile Legends”. MadMarket writes that three of its tools “offer a wide variety of eSports tournaments and leagues across popular games like CS:GO, Dota 2, League of Legends”. Sportmarket’s help article on its FairExchange tool lists eSports among its sports: “Boxing, Cycling, Darts, eSports”.
In play, the price moves
Once a map is played the series price moves with it, as the 84.0% above shows.
Orbit’s general exchange rules say “customers are responsible for managing their in-play bets at all times”. The same rules reserve the right to suspend a market at any time, at the exchange’s sole and absolute discretion.
Questions a best-of-three raises
Does a betting exchange like Orbit Exchange list esports?
Orbit Exchange lists Esports among the 27 entries of its menu, next to Soccer, Tennis and Horse Racing. The menu entry by entry has all 27.
What do back and lay mean on a best-of-three?
A back wins if Team A takes the series. A lay wins if it does not, and risks the backer’s winnings if it does: £75 laid at 1.58 risks £43.50. The page on first exchange bets shows the slip.
What is a map handicap, and what does it mean to lay it?
A map handicap adds maps to one team’s score, or takes them off, before the result is read. Backing Team A at -1.5 wins only on a 2-0; laying it wins on anything else, a 2-1 win for Team A included.
What does a total maps line of 2.5 mean?
The line asks whether the series needs a third map. Backing the over wins if a third map is played; laying it wins if the series ends 2-0, for either team.
Is the price of a series the price of a map?
No. At an assumed 0.60 a map, a map has a fair price of 1.667 and the series 1.543; once Team A is a map up, the series stands at 84.0%.
To bet on Orbit Exchange you need the account first, and a broker opens it. The way into the exchange lays out the routes, and the sign-up page covers opening the account.