Compare Betting Odds After Commission, Outcome by Outcome
The usual "best odds" list compares bookmakers with other bookmakers. Wrong shelf: an exchange price is not the price you keep.
Best odds on a betting exchange means best odds after commission. An exchange price is not a bookmaker's price until the commission has come out of it: net odds are 1 + (odds - 1) × (1 - commission). Compare the two outcome by outcome, not on the total, because the exchange can be ahead on one outcome and behind on the next. In the example below (invented prices, an assumed 4% commission) the exchange leads on two outcomes of three and the bookmaker on the third. The checker below takes one price against one price, with the commission at which the exchange stops being ahead, then a whole market, with the net odds and the leader on each outcome.
Check a market, outcome by outcome
The tool opens on this page's example: three outcomes, invented prices and a commission of 4%, an assumption and not a rate. Net odds. Gap. Break-even. Three numbers to read. Type your own prices over any box; the second panel reads the commission from the first.
Price check: bookmaker against exchange
Commission comes off the net profit of a market, so an exchange price is not the price you keep. Enter your own rate to compare an exchange price with a bookmaker price, for one selection and then for a whole market. Everything is worked out in your browser and nothing is sent anywhere.
One price against one price
Type the same selection as a bookmaker prices it and as an exchange prices it. The exchange odds are turned into effective odds with your commission rate, then set against the bookmaker price.
Above 5.88% commission the bookmaker price is the better one. Below it the exchange price after commission is. At exactly that rate the two are level.
Example shown: bookmaker 2.28, exchange 2.36, commission 4%, stake £120. Replace them with your own.
A whole market, outcome by outcome
Type the bookmaker and exchange odds of every outcome in one market, taken at one moment. Each outcome gets its effective exchange odds and its gap, and the four sums of 1 / odds show how the prices stack up across the market. This uses the commission rate you entered in One price against one price.
The two index rows are indexes of net prices, one per outcome at your rate. They are not the cost of backing every outcome: commission is charged on a market's net profit, and a market that returns the same loss on every outcome has none to charge. Read the quoted margins for the cost, and the per-outcome rows for the winner.
Example shown: bookmaker 2.28, 3.15 and 3.30, exchange 2.36, 3.08 and 3.45, commission 4%. Replace them with your own.
One price, net of commission
2.36 against 2.28 looks like a win for the exchange. It depends on what you keep. In the terms of Betfair, Betdaq, Matchbook and Smarkets (at its default tier), commission is charged on net winnings in a market (Betfair adds that stakes are left out of the sum); on the Orbit routes it comes off a market's net profit once the bet is settled. So the price to compare is the net one: 1 + (odds - 1) × (1 - commission). The commission page sets the formula out and lets you change the rate. The checker does not model Smarkets' Pro tier (optional) or its Select tier (applied by Smarkets above a profit threshold), which charge per bet, on winnings or losses.
The first outcome
Bookmaker 2.28, exchange 2.36, commission 4%. Net exchange odds: 1 + 1.36 × 0.96 = 2.306, which is +0.026 on the bookmaker's 2.28.
On a £120 stake the bookmaker pays £153.60 of profit and the exchange £156.67 (156.672 before rounding), which is £3.07 more.
Break-even commission: 1 - (2.28 - 1) / (2.36 - 1) = 0.0588, or 5.88%. Above that rate the bookmaker's price is the better one.
That is a lead of 1.12% on the bookmaker's price. With no profit in the market there is nothing to charge on, and the exchange betting guide shows where in a market the charge lands.
Why the same rate costs more on a long price
Commission is a share of profit, and profit grows with the price: per unit staked, a win at 2.00 makes 1.00 and a win at 10.00 makes 9.00. Take the same 4% from each and the share of the price that disappears is larger on the long one: commission × (1 - 1 / odds). At 2.00 that is 2.00% of the price, and at 10.00 it is 3.60%.
Commission is a share of the profit, so the longer the price, the more of the price it takes. 4% is an assumption for the example, not a rate.
Show the data table
| Decimal odds | Price lost |
|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1.33% |
| 2.00 | 2.00% |
| 4.00 | 3.00% |
| 6.00 | 3.33% |
| 10.00 | 3.60% |
| 21.00 | 3.81% |
Short price, thin slice. Long price, thick slice. Give the exchange a lead of 0.05 in the raw price: it survives the cut at 1.50 and does not survive it at 10.00. I would check the long prices first, because a small lead disappears there before anywhere else.
Read each outcome, not the total
Picture a bettor with the same read on three outcomes and two places to place it. The exchange's quoted book is the cheaper one, so it looks like the better place for all three. Read the outcomes one at a time and the draw belongs to the bookmaker.
Here is the example market at 4%. The home win: 2.28 at the bookmaker, 2.36 on the exchange, net 2.306, a lead of 0.026 that lasts up to a commission of 5.88%. The away win: 3.30 against 3.45, net 3.352, a lead of 0.052 that lasts up to 6.12%. The break-even sits in the first panel: type an outcome's two prices there to read its rate.
For scale, the normal rates in the terms of Smarkets, Matchbook and Betdaq, which are the rates those exchanges set for their own customers and not what a broker route charges, run from 2% to 5% of net winnings, by exchange and territory. At 5% the home win's net odds are 2.292 against the bookmaker's 2.28, so its lead survives, and the away win's lead survives too: 3.3275 net against 3.30, its break-even being 6.12%.
The draw goes the other way. The bookmaker has 3.15 and the exchange 3.08, which is lower before any commission is taken. Net 2.997 sits 0.153 under the bookmaker, and no rate repairs that, so this outcome has no break-even.
- Bookmaker book
- 105.91%, margin 5.91 points
- Exchange book, quoted prices
- 103.83%, margin 3.83 points
- Exchange wins
- 2 outcomes of 3
- Bookmaker wins
- 1 outcome of 3
A book is the sum of 1 / odds across the outcomes, and its margin is the excess over 100%; the margin check on the converter works one out. On the quoted books, before any commission, the example exchange is 2.08 points cheaper, so it looks like the winner. The draw says otherwise. A total adds the outcomes together before anyone looks at the one they plan to bet.
I would not look at the total first. I would look at the outcome I actually plan to bet.
Read the margins, not the net index
The tool also prints a net price index, 106.57%, and a best-price index, 104.95%. Both are indexes of prices at your rate, not the cost of backing every outcome: commission is charged on a market's net profit, and a market that returns the same loss on every outcome has no profit to charge it on.
The quoted margins, 5.91 and 3.83 points, are the measure of what each book costs. For the winner, read the outcome rows.
Where the commission is already in the price
Not every screen asks you to subtract. On Edge, MadMarket's platform, an exchange's commission is already factored into the price shown, and on Sportmarket's platform the bookmaker and exchange fees are integrated into the odds displayed. Compare those prices as displayed: in the tool, a price like that goes in with a commission of 0%, which leaves it as typed; ignore the break-even row, because the commission is already in the price.
On Orbit Exchange, reached through OrbitX, Sharp Exchange or FairExchange, the commission is charged on the net profit of the market once the bet is settled. Those prices are compared after commission, which is what the checker does. The rate each route states is on the commission page; three of the four brokers write 3%.
Comparing after commission suits a bettor who prices one market at a time. A bettor who wants one all-in number is better served by the platforms with the commission already inside. The broker overview covers what a broker account opens, and the four brokers side by side sets the routes against each other.
Seven questions the sums raise
Are exchange prices always better than a bookmaker's?
No. In the example the exchange leads on two outcomes of three, and the bookmaker keeps the draw. The answer changes with the outcome and the rate.
How do I turn an exchange price into one I can compare?
Put it through the net-odds formula from the second section: at 4%, 2.36 becomes 2.306. The tool does it for a whole market at once.
At what commission does an exchange price stop beating a bookmaker's?
At (1 - (B - 1) / (O - 1)) × 100%, where B is the bookmaker's odds and O the exchange's: 5.88% for 2.28 and 2.36, 6.12% for 3.30 and 3.45. When O starts below B, as on the draw, no such rate exists: the bookmaker is ahead at 0% already.
Does a lower commission always mean a better net price?
No, because the quoted price counts too. 3.12 at 1% gives 1 + 2.12 × 0.99 = 3.099; 3.28 at 4% gives 1 + 2.28 × 0.96 = 3.189. The higher rate wins here, because the price it works on is bigger.
Does the exchange have a margin of its own?
Prices typed in from a market add up to a book, and the book gives a margin: 3.83 points for the exchange prices in the example. That margin belongs to those three prices, not to Orbit Exchange or to any other exchange.
What is the difference between a sportsbook and an exchange?
At a sportsbook the price is the bookmaker's. On a sports exchange, backers and layers face each other, and where a commission applies it comes out of a market's net winnings (Smarkets' per-bet tiers aside; on Edge and Sportmarket's platform it is already in the price). That is why this page compares net prices.
Do prediction markets have better odds than sportsbooks?
Nothing on this page says so. The sums are the same, though: a prediction market quotes a contract in cents, and 60 cents is a 60% chance, 1.667 in decimal odds (turning cents into odds does it both ways). Put that price next to a bookmaker's for the outcome you plan to bet, after any fee the platform charges.
Reality check
A better net price is not a winning bet. It raises what a win pays and says nothing about whether you win. Most bettors lose over a season, on bookmakers and on exchanges alike. Keep every stake to an amount a bad season would not hurt, and read the responsible gambling page before the first one.
A price is also worth only the stake offered at it: the 2.36 buys as much as is waiting at 2.36. The depth behind a price decides how much that is, and room at the price covers who caps a stake.
When the sums point to the exchange
If your outcome comes out ahead on the exchange, the next question is the account. Orbit Exchange is reached through a broker: what Orbit Exchange is describes the exchange, and the routes into Orbit Exchange lays out the ways in.
This page sets a back against a bookmaker's price. A lay has no bookmaker equivalent, and what a lay puts at risk covers that side. To weigh one exchange against another rather than against a bookmaker, start with how the exchanges compare on reach.